SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 21/11/25
WEEKLY & DAILY LEVELS
***QUOTING ES1! FOR CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS, SUBTRACT POINT DIFFERENCE***
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 6820/30
WEEKLY RANGE RES 6900/6610
WEEKLY VWAP BEARISH 6792
NOV EOM STRADDLE 7054/6626
NOV MOPEX STRADDLE 6929/6399
DEC QOPEX STRADDLE 7054/6303
DAILY STRUCTURE – BALANCE - 6709/6594
DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 6621/31
DAILY RANGE RES 6610 SUP 6493
2 SIGMA RES 6667 SUP 6437
DAILY VWAP BULLISH 6628
VIX BULL BEAR ZONE 22.2
TRADES & TARGETS
SHORT ON ON TEST/REJECT DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET DAILY RANGE SUP
LONG ACCEPTANCE ABOVE DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET 2 SIGMA RES
LONG ON TEST/REJECT DAILY RANGE SUP TARGET 6555
(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE ABOVE OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)
GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING DESK VIEWS
U.S. EQUITIES COLOR: UNPRECEDENTED
S&P dropped 156bps, closing at 6,539 with a MOC of $3.6B to BUY. NDX declined 238bps to 24,054, R2K slid 183bps to 2,305, and the Dow fell 84bps to 45,752. Trading volume reached 21.3 billion shares across all US equity exchanges, surpassing the YTD daily average of 17.48 billion shares. VIX rose 12% to 26.42, WTI Crude slipped 50bps to $59.14, US 10YR yield fell 4bps to 4.09%, gold edged up 2bps to 4,078, DXY gained 2bps to 100.25, and Bitcoin plummeted 422bps to $86,695.
The S&P 500 experienced a sharp reversal, closing negative despite opening with a gap up of over +1.4%. This rare occurrence has only been seen twice before—April 7, 2020 (post-COVID crash) and April 8, 2025 (post-Liberation Day crash). Several factors contributed to the reversal: 1) NVDA's 7% fade despite a beat-and-raise, failing to meet expectations, 2) growing concerns around private credit, highlighted by Fed’s Cook discussing “potential asset valuation vulnerabilities,” 3) September NFP data provided no definitive answer for December FOMC, with cut odds slightly rising to 35%, 4) crypto meltdown dropping below the critical 90k psychological level, 5) accelerating CTA supply as cohorts are heavily long and approaching the MT threshold at 6,456, 6) shorts re-engaging, 7) lackluster price action overseas (SK Hynix, Softbank), all compounded by an illiquid market (S&P top of book weak at ~$5mm vs YTD average ~$11mm) and macro-driven trading (ETFs accounted for 41% of the tape vs YTD average of 28%).
Activity levels on the floor were subdued, rated a 5 on a 1-10 scale. The floor finished -398bps for sale compared to a 30-day average of -179bps. Single stock activity remained muted, with tech seeing persistent L/O sell tickets but no acceleration in long supply velocity throughout the session. Hedge funds flipped short after the EU close, covering AI pockets early, and ended the day as net sellers (~$1.5B) alongside LOs, with overlapping supply in tech, consumer, and macro products. Healthcare remained net bought. Post-market, INTU gained 1% on a beat-and-reiterate.
In derivatives, SPX December vol opened 1.5v lower on the day. Customer flows leaned toward hedging, even at spot highs and vol lows. While short vol appears less attractive today than yesterday, there remains potential for a year-end rally. Preference shifts to call spreads over call spread collars in both SPX and NDX. S&P vol showed increased stress, with SPX hovering near the 100dma at 6,544. The S&P tomorrow straddle is priced at 135bps.
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Futures and Options: Trading futures and options on margin carries a high degree of risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial investment. These products are not suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks and take appropriate care to manage your risk.
Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!