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SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 17/11/25
***QUOTING ES1 CONTRACT FOR CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS SUBTRACT POINTS DIFFERENCE***
***WEEKLY ACTION AREA VIDEO TO FOLLOW AHEAD OF NY OPEN***
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 6820/30
WEEKLY RANGE RES 6900/6610
NOV EOM STRADDLE 7054/6626
NOV MOPEX STRADDLE 6929/6399
DEC QOPEX STRADDLE 7054/6303
Aggregate Gamma Flip Vicinity: At 6740, net gamma shifts from positive to negative, potentially increasing volatility as market makers adjust positions. Gamma Peak: At 6950, gamma is maximised, marking a key resistance level that may stabilise volatility temporarily. Contextual Implications: "Friday’s open" highlights time-sensitive options positioning. Below 6740, volatility may rise; at 6950, resistance could stabilise price movements.
DAILY VWAP BEARISH 6803
WEEKLY VWAP BEARISH 6801
DAILY STRUCTURE – ONE TIME FRAMING LOWER - 6795
WEEKLY STRUCTURE – BALANCE - 6952/6655
MONTHLY STRUCTURE – ONE TIME FRAMING HIGHER - 6591
Balance: This refers to a market condition where prices move within a defined range, reflecting uncertainty as participants await further market-generated information. Our approach to balance includes favoring fade trades at the range extremes (highs/lows) while preparing for potential breakout scenarios if the balance shifts.
One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): This represents a market trend where each successive bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong and consistent upward movement.
One-Time Framing Down (OTFD): This describes a market trend where each successive bar forms a lower high, indicating a pronounced and steady downward movement.
GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING DESK VIEWS
weekend prep ...
On the week, it’s surprising that NDX/SPX ended nearly flat despite volatility in Momentum/AI themes and persistent hawkishness from the Fed. The market is now pricing a 53% probability of a Fed rate cut on December 10th, down from 98% in late October. Flows were more constructive today compared to yesterday, with an increase in buyers engaging with supply and a tactical bull case suggesting "peak" negativity is priced in. Momentum pair +386bps showed stabilization signs, while Asset Manager and Hedge Fund flow skews were benign for the week. Rotational flows were evident, with Tech experiencing the highest sales velocity on Thursday (primarily by long-only investors) and demand shifting toward Large Cap Pharma and Therapeutics (mainly driven by Hedge Funds, though some long-only chasing occurred Friday). The CTA short-term momentum threshold for the S&P 500 at 6725 was regained, but the medium-term threshold at 6442 remains key—falling below this level would require the market to absorb over $32 billion in supply within a week.
Prime: U.S. equities were net bought for the week, with gross trading activity increasing at the fastest pace since early April, driven by long buys outpacing short sales (1.2:1). Macro Products (Index and ETF combined) were modestly net sold, with short sales exceeding long buys (2.3:1). Single Stocks saw the largest increase in gross trading activity in over four years, driven by long buys outpacing short sales (3.4:1). Health Care was the most net bought U.S. sector for the second consecutive week, driven entirely by long buys, with nearly all subsectors net bought (except HC Providers & Services), led by Biotech and Pharmaceuticals. Conversely, Energy was the most net sold sector, experiencing its largest selling in nearly five months, driven by both short and long sales (3:1). All sectors saw increased gross trading flow, led by Info Tech (short sales > long buys), Industrials (long buys > short sales), Health Care (long buys > short sales), Consumer Discretionary (long buys > short sales), and Staples (long buys > short sales). Hedge Funds have now net bought Health Care stocks for nine consecutive weeks, with the U.S. Health Care long/short ratio at 2.77—the highest level in over three years (77th percentile over five years).
Next Week: The S&P implied move through next Friday (11/21) is 2.04%, with focus shifting to earnings from key names in Tech (NVDA, PANW, INTU) and Consumer (HD, WMT, LOW, TGT, TJX, WSM, GAP, ARMK), which will influence broader market sentiment. Additional catalysts include analyst days (FWONK, TEL, Siemens Energy, XYZ, UPW, FDX), sell-side conferences (GS hosting MSFT, MH, HAS, Hardware Bus Tour with CSCO, ANET, SMCI), and the release of FOMC minutes. A lineup of Fed speakers is also scheduled, including Daly (Monday 8:30am), Musalem (Monday 9:45am), Barr (Tuesday evening), Williams (Wednesday 9:20am), Paulson (Wednesday 10am), Waller (Wednesday 10:20am), Bostic (Wednesday 12:15pm), Miran (Wednesday 12:30pm), Collins (Wednesday 4pm), Daly (Thursday 8am), Kashkari (Thursday 10:30am), Musalem (Thursday 12:15pm), Hammack (Thursday 12:20pm), Schmid (Friday 10:05am), Logan (Friday 2:30pm), and Bostic (Friday 3:20pm).
TMT: NDX finished flat for the week, with AMD and MU both gaining over 5%. However, volatility persisted, with the VIX closing with a 2-handle as investor sentiment around AI and Big Tech faced challenges. Few new data points drove the pullback—ongoing discussions around debt, China AI, ROICs, and bubbles were the primary themes. Despite this, AMD highlighted a bullish Datacenter TAM of ~$1 trillion for 2030, and CSCO reported strong order acceleration with positive commentary on Tech demand across sovereign, cloud, and enterprise. The pullback felt more like a rate-of-change event as Momentum unwound, and investors were quick to hit the brakes given the time of year. NVDA earnings next week will be a key focus for investors.
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!