Daily Market Outlook, October 2, 2025 

Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group

Munnelly’s Macro Minute…

Global stock markets are experiencing a historic surge, which has continued into Asian trading hours, with a rise in shares attributed to OpenAI's partnership with South Korea's top semiconductor manufacturers, adding to market optimism around artificial intelligence. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 1%, hitting a record high, propelled by technology firms in the semiconductor sector. Samsung Electronics Co. increased by 4.5%, while SK Hynix Inc. jumped 11% after joining OpenAI's Stargate initiative, pushing South Korean stocks to new heights. This upswing follows the all-time highs in the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and MSCI’s global index. Futures for both US and European markets indicate further growth. OpenAI also finalised a secondary share transaction, valuing the company at a stunning $500 billion, solidifying its status as the world's most valuable startup. The combination of the AI excitement and substantial corporate investments has driven stock market records post-April's downturn. Investors are mainly disregarding the budget gridlock in Washington, which has triggered the first federal shutdown in seven years, posing risks of delays in crucial economic data necessary for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy actions. In additional developments, Treasuries stabilised after private payroll data enhanced expectations for a Fed rate cut this month. The dollar remained stable, and gold paused after five days of consecutive record increases. In Japan, bond futures reversed previous gains as demand waned during a 10-year debt auction. On Wednesday, OpenAI’s Sam Altman signed a letter of intent with Samsung and SK Hynix to support his global data centre expansion, a significant initiative involving major players in the industry such as Nvidia Corp. and Oracle Corp. The project to develop next-generation AI infrastructure is expected to require trillions of dollars, as well as vast quantities of chips, servers, cooling technologies, and electricity. Altman is set to travel to Taipei next, where he will meet with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., according to local reports.

Anticipation for the UK Budget is building, with nearly eight weeks still remaining. The media this morning (notably the FT and Bloomberg) frames the situation around the Treasury preparing to receive the first OBR forecast tomorrow, which will clarify the extent of the financial gap that needs to be addressed to restore 'headroom' in relation to the fiscal rules. Following the Labour Party conference, it appears there will be another effort aimed at some form of welfare reform or limits on public spending to help bridge the fiscal gap, though the majority of the issue is expected to be resolved through increased taxation. A potential concern for the gilt market is that the summer's failure of welfare reform proposals may cause some investors to worry about the risks associated with policy implementation, especially if fulfilling the fiscal rules relies on contentious internal party politics. Another aspect of this morning's budget news is a report (FT) suggesting that retailers might be exempted from the higher tiers of business rates. The reasoning behind this seems to be aimed at avoiding policy actions that might exacerbate inflation and hinder further rate cuts by the BoE. In this case, imposing higher business rates on supermarkets could lead to sustained higher food price inflation. Following recent discussions about abolishing VAT on energy bills, it seems that crafting fiscal policy that aids in reducing inflation could be a key focus for this budget.

Overnight Headlines

  • BoE Needs To Reduce Inflation Without Hitting Jobs, Rate-Setters Warn

  • US Government Shuts Down As Lawmakers Fail To Strike Funding Deal

  • Trump Trade Chief Greer Calls 55% China Tariffs A ‘Good Status Quo’

  • Trump Trade Chief Expects US To Ink More Deals During Asia Trip

  • Japan’s Manufacturer Sentiment Improves, Backing BoJ’s Hike Case

  • Gulf Sovereign Funds Defy Lower Oil Prices To Top Global Investment

  • Berkshire Hathaway Near $10B Deal For Occidental’s Petrochemical Unit

  • Nike Thumps Expectations Despite 31% Fall In Earnings

  • Meta Plans To Buy Chip Startup Rivos To Boost Semiconductor Efforts

  • US Auto Bankruptcies Show Rising Credit Pain In Low-Income Households

  • US Announces 'TrumpRx' Discounted Drug Sales Pfizer Programme

  • Taiwan Rejects US Demand For Half Of Chip Production Locally Made

  • Trump To Meet With Argentina’s Milei As Soy Sales Could Stymie $20B

  • Anderson Warns Nvidia’s $100B OpenAI Bet Echoes Dotcom Bubble

  • Gold Holds Ground Near Record As Traders Weigh Risk Of Shutdown

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut 

(1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)

  • EUR/USD: 1.1675-80 (1.8BLN), 1.1695-1.1705 (3.1BLN), 1.1720-25 (1.4BLN)

  • 1.1750 (1.8BLN), 1.1775 (613M), 1.1785-90 (4BLN), 1.1800 (601M)

  • USD/CHF: 0.7875 (300M), 0.7995-0.8010 (1BLN)

  • EUR/CHF: 0.9340 (278M), 0.9360-70 (304M)

  • EUR/GBP: 0.8710-20 (931M)

  • GBP/USD: 1.3370-80 (1.3BLN), 1.3395-1.3400 (495M), 1.3410-15 (348M)

  • 1.3470-75 (830M), 1.3500 (502M)

  • AUD/USD: 0.6600 (2.1BLN), 0.6610 (360M), 0.6625 (794M), 0.6650 (486M)

  • NZD/USD: 0.5850-60 (460M). USD/CAD: 1.3900 (776M), 140.00 (274M)

  • USD/JPY: 146.50-55 (504M), 147.50-60 (1.4BLN), 147.95-148.00 (1.8BLN)

CFTC Positions as of the Week Ending 26/9/25 

  • Speculators trim CBOT US Treasury bonds futures net short position by 15,347 contracts to 78,791

  • Speculators trim CBOT US Ultrabond Treasury futures net short position by 7,408 contracts to 270,759

  • Speculators increase CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures net short position by 24,817 contracts to 844,116

  • Speculators increase CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures net short position by 16,670 contracts to 2,453,444

  • Speculators trim CBOT US 2-year Treasury futures net short position by 103,272 contracts to 1,300,198

  • Equity fund managers raise S&P 500 CME net long position by 20,454 contracts to 912,089

  • Equity fund speculators trim S&P 500 CME net short position by 31,451 contracts to 443,946

  • Japanese yen net long position is 79,500 contracts

  • Euro net long position is 114,345 contracts

  • British pound net short position is -1,964 contracts

  • Swiss franc posts net short position of -23,018 contracts

  • Bitcoin net long position is 79 contracts.

Technical & Trade Views

SP500

  • Daily VWAP Bullish

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Above 6440 Target 6800

  • Below 6600 Target 6500

EURUSD 

  • Daily VWAP Bearish

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Below 1.1750 Target 1.15

  • Above 1.18 Target 1.1910

GBPUSD 

  • Daily VWAP Bearish 

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish

  • Below 1.36 Target 1.30

  • Above 1.3650 Target 1.3850

USDJPY 

  • Daily VWAP Bearish 

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Below 1.49 Target 1.45

  • Above 1.51 Target 1.54

XAUUSD

  • Daily VWAP Bullish 

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Above 3600 Target 3885

  • Below 3500 Target 3400

BTCUSD 

  • Daily VWAP Bullish 

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Above 120k Target 122k

  • Below 117k Target 115k