Crude Falls Despite US/Iran Hostilities
Crude Slides on Friday
Somewhat confusing price action in crude oil today with the futures market continuing to reverse lower from Wednesdays highs, despite the ongoing attacks between the US and Iran. Tensions flared earlier in the week with Trump declaring the ceasefire to be over as the US struck more than 80 sites across Iran and Iran in turn attacking US military sites in neighbouring countries. The US has gone on to further step up its attacks, targeting Iranian bridges for the first time since April. Iran is now threatening a return to a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Fighting Escalates
The escalation this week marks the heaviest military action between the two since before the initial ceasefire was agreed. However, despite the initial spike higher in oil prices earlier in the week, the market has since calmed and prices are now moving lower again.
Why is Price Falling Today?
This dynamic suggests that either a) traders are underestimating the prospects of a return to all out war and see the attacks as temporary noise likely to soon subside b) are reassured by the fact that technical talks between the two countries are ongoing with focus still on delivering a deal within this 60-day negotiations window. With so many prior periods of attacks flaring up and then calming down, traders are likely looking through the violence to some degree. However, crude remains vulnerable to sharp upside price swings if tensions escalate further and talks are abandoned.
Technical Views
Crude
The rally in crude saw price spiking up to just shy of the 77.65 level before reversing lower again. Price is now retesting support at 70.76 which, if broken, will turn focus back to 65.38 and bull trend line support next.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.